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《MedRxiv，3月29日，（第2版更新）Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-30

  • Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

    Qinghe Liu, Zhicheng Liu, Junkai Zhu, Yuhao Zhu, Deqiang Li, Zefei Gao, Liuling Zhou, Junyan Yang, View ORCID ProfileQiao Wang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224

    Abstract

    COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic, whereas it had been effecitvely under control in China by March 15. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. The results show that the global R_0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.48 (95% CI: 1.60 -4.33). The United States, Germany, Italy, Spain, have peak values over 50,000. And the peak arrival time of all these countries is after Apr. 15, 2020. We predict that there are four regional clusters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v2
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