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《MedRixv，2月22日，（第4版更新）Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-23

  • Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

    Qinghe Liu, Zhicheng Liu, Deqiang Li, Zefei Gao, Junkai Zhu, Junyan Yang, Qiao Wang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444

    Abstract

    Since December 8, 2019, the spread of COVID-19 is increasing every day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. We proposed a Flow-SEHIR model in this paper, based on which we further analyzed the trends of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) in China. The results show that the basic reproductive numbers R0 of COVID-19 is 3.56 (95% CI: 2.31-4.81). The number of daily confirmed new cases reaches the inflection point on Feb. 6-10 outside Hubei. For the maximum of infected cases number, the predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated to be 13806 (95% CI: 11926-15845). The peak arrival time is on March 3-9. The temporal number of patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 12 to March 15. The peak values of more than 73.5% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. According to Flow-SEHIR model and estimations from the data of evacuation of nationals from Wuhan, the peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei was estimated to be 403481 (95% CI: 143284-1166936).

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444v4
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  • 《MedRixv，2月18日，（第2版更新）Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-20
    • Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China Qinghe Liu, Deqiang Li, Zhicheng Liu, Zefei Gao, Junkai Zhu, Junyan Yang, Qiao Wang doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444 Abstract Since December 8, 2019, the spread of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) is increasing day by day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. A Flow-SEHIR model is proposed to perform empirical analysis for Hubei Province and those ares in China outside Hubei. It is shown that the time when new confirmed cases number has reached a peak level, i.e. the inflection point, is verified to be on February 6 - 10. The maximum of temporal infected cases number is represented by peak value. The predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated as 31300 (95% CI: 27700 - 36800). The peak arrival time is on March 3 - 9. The number of real-time patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 2 to March 24. The peak values of more than 60% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. Considering the false-negative rate of nucleic acid detection is 0.5, the real peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei is estimated between 214400 - 472500. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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  • 《MedRxiv，2月18日，Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-19
    • Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China Qinghe Liu, Deqiang Li, Zhicheng Liu, Zefei Gao, Junkai Zhu, Junyan Yang, Qiao Wang doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444 Abstract Since December 8, 2019, the spread of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) is increasing day by day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. A Flow-SEHIR model is proposed to perform empirical analysis for Hubei Province and those ares in China outside Hubei. It is shown that the time when new confirmed cases number has reached a peak level, i.e. the inflection point, is verified to be on February 6 - 10. The maximum of temporal infected cases number is represented by peak value. The predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated as 31300 (95% CI: 27700 - 36800). The peak arrival time is on March 3 - 9. The number of real-time patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 2 to March 24. The peak values of more than 60% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. Considering the false-negative rate of nucleic acid detection is 0.5, the real peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei is estimated between 214400 - 472500. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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