Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China
Qinghe Liu, Deqiang Li, Zhicheng Liu, Zefei Gao, Junkai Zhu, Junyan Yang, Qiao Wang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444
Abstract
Since December 8, 2019, the spread of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) is increasing day by day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. A Flow-SEHIR model is proposed to perform empirical analysis for Hubei Province and those ares in China outside Hubei. It is shown that the time when new confirmed cases number has reached a peak level, i.e. the inflection point, is verified to be on February 6 - 10. The maximum of temporal infected cases number is represented by peak value. The predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated as 31300 (95% CI: 27700 - 36800). The peak arrival time is on March 3 - 9. The number of real-time patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 2 to March 24. The peak values of more than 60% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. Considering the false-negative rate of nucleic acid detection is 0.5, the real peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei is estimated between 214400 - 472500.
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