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《MedRixv，2月11日，Transmission Dynamics of 2019-nCoV in Malaysia》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-12

  • Transmission Dynamics of 2019-nCoV in Malaysia

    Jane Labadin, Boon Hao Hong

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021188

    Abstract

    This paper focuses on the formulation of a deterministic 2019-nCov transmission model by considering the exposed and recovered populations with immunity. The scenario of the simulation is depicted based on the patient zero in Malaysia. The transmission model is found to be able to predict the next confirmed case given a single case introduced in a fully susceptible population. The mathematical model is developed based on the SEIR model which has susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered populations. The system of equations which were obtained were solved numerically and the simulation results were analyzed. The analysis includes the impact of the disease if no control is taken.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021188v1
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