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《MedRixv，2月11日，The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-12

  • The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing

    Xinhai Li, Xumao Zhao, Yuehua Sun

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477

    Abstract

    After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation. We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 10 in Wuhan and March 31 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477v1
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  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing Xinhai Li, Xumao Zhao, Yuehua Sun doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477 Abstract Background: After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation. Methods and findings: We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 6±10 in Wuhan and March 20±16 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The number of confirmed cases in cities inside Hubei Province grow exponentially, whereas those in cities outside the province increase linearly. Conclusions: The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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  • 《MedRixv，2月11日，Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
    • Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, XIao-Hua Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 5, 2020, a total of 24433 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with 2019-nCov were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Although the estimated controlled reproduction numbers R_c produced by all three methods in all different regions are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R_0, they are still greater than one. Conclusions: Although the controlled reproduction number is declining, it is still larger than one. Additional efforts are needed to further reduce the R_c to below one in order to end the current epidemic. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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