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《MedRixv，2月11日，Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-12

  • Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States

    Seth Blumberg, Thomas M Lietman, Travis C Porco

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021311

    Abstract

    Abstract: The 2019-nCoV outbreak has raised concern of global spread. While person-to-person transmission within the Wuhan district has led to a large outbreak, the transmission potential outside of the region remains unclear. Here we present a simple approach for determining whether the upper limit of the confidence interval for the reproduction number exceeds one for transmission in the United States, which would allow endemic transmission. As of February 7, 2020, the number of cases in the United states support subcritical transmission, rather than ongoing transmission. However, this conclusion can change if pre-symptomatic cases resulting from human-to-human transmission have not yet been identified.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021311v1
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  • 《MedRixv，2月11日，Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
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