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《MedRixv，2月29日，Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-01

  • Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

    Sanyi Tang, Biao Tang, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Fan Xia, Tangjuan Li, Sha He, Pengyu Ren, Xia Wang, Zhihang Peng, Yanni Xiao, Jianhong Wu

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027615

    Abstract

    Before the lock-down of Wuhan/Hubei/China, on January 23rd 2020, a large number of individuals infected by COVID-19 moved from the epicenter Wuhan and the Hubei province due to the Spring Festival, resulting in an epidemic in the other provinces including the Shaanxi province. The epidemic scale in Shaanxi was comparatively small and with half of cases being imported from the epicenter. Based on the complete epidemic data including the symptom onset time and transmission chains, we calculate the control reproduction number (1.48-1.69) in Xian. We could also compute the time transition, for each imported or local case, from the latent, to infected, to hospitalized compartment, as well as the effective reproduction number.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027615v1
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