Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling
Liangrong Peng, Wuyue Yang, Dongyan Zhang, Changjing Zhuge, Liu Hong
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465
Abstract
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic has attracted world- wide attention. Herein, we propose a mathematical model to analyzes this epidemic, based on a dynamic mechanism that incorporating the intrinsic impact of hidden la- tent and infectious cases on the entire process of transmission. Meanwhile, this model is validated by data correlation analysis, predicting the recent public data, and back- tracking, as well as sensitivity analysis. The dynamical model reveals the impact of various measures on the key parameters of the epidemic. According to the public data of NHCs from 01/20 to 02/09, we predict the epidemic peak and possible end time for 5 different regions. The epidemic in Beijing and Shanghai, Mainland/Hubei and Hubei/Wuhan, are expected to end before the end of February, and before mid- March respectively. The model indicates that, the outbreak in Wuhan is predicted to be ended in the early April. As a result, more effective policies and more efforts on clinical research are demanded. Moreover, through the backtracking simulation, we infer that the outbreak of the epidemic in Mainland/Hubei, Hubei/Wuhan, and Wuhan can be dated back to the end of December 2019 or the beginning of January 2020.
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