Illness and Fatality Risks of COVID-19 of General Public in Hubei Provinces and Other Parts of China
YUNGANG HE
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027672
Abstract
New coronavirus 2019-nCOV poses a big challenge for global public health in early 2020. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the virus rapidly spreads all over the world and takes thousands of lives in just two months. To assess illness and fatality risk of the viral infection is exceedingly helpful to ensure effective management of the general public and patients in the outbreak. Therefore, it is critical to quantify illness and fatality risk of COVID-19 for the general public. In this report, we investigate the illness and fatality risk of the infection by analyzing the age composition of 5319 infected patients, 76 mortality cases, and 1,144,648 individuals of the general public in China. Our result shows a relatively low illness risk for young people but a very high fatality risk for seniors. Notably, fatality risk could be as high as 0.48 for people older than 80 years. Furthermore, our study suggests that a good medical service can effectively reduce the mortality rate of the viral infection to 1% or less.
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