登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，3月6日，Age-dependent risks of Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and Other Parts of China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • Age-dependent risks of Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and Other Parts of China

    Hongdou Li, Shuang Wang, Fan Zhong, Wuyin Bao, Yipeng Li, Lei Liu, Hongyan Wang, Yungang He

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027672

    Abstract

    New coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 poses a big challenge for global public health in early 2020. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the virus rapidly spreads all over the world and takes thousands of lives in just two months. It is critical to refine the incidence and mortality risks of COVID-19 for the effective management of the general public and patients in the outbreak. In this report, we investigate the incidence and mortality risks of the infection by analyzing the age composition of 5319 infected patients, 76 fatal cases, and 1,144,648 individuals of the general public in China. Our result shows a relatively low incidence risk for young people but a very high mortality risk for seniors. Notably, mortality risk could be as high as 0.48 for people older than 80 years. Furthermore, our study suggests that a good medical service can effectively reduce the mortality rate of the viral infection to 1% or less.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027672v2
115浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《Nature，6月16日，Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-06-17
    • Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics Nicholas G. Davies, Petra Klepac, Yang Liu, Kiesha Prem, Mark Jit, CMMID COVID-19 working group & Rosalind M. Eggo Nature Medicine (2020) Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children1,2,3,4. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70 years. Accordingly, we find that interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low. Our age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility estimates have implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19, as a result of demographic differences across settings. In countries with younger population structures—such as many low-income countries—the expected per capita incidence of clinical cases would be lower than in countries with older population structures, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will also influence disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with relatively older populations could see disproportionally more cases of COVID-19, particularly in the later stages of an unmitigated epidemic.
    123浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRxiv，3月6日，Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-07
    • Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Hui Wan, Jing-an Cui, Guo-Jing Yang doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029629 Abstract Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of oversea countries. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in mainland China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    119浏览量
    原文链接