Highland of COVID-19 outside Hubei: epidemic characteristics, control and projections of Wenzhou, China
Liangde Xu, Jian Yuan, Yaru Zhang, Guosi Zhang, Fan Lu, Jianzhong Su, Jia Qu
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.25.20024398
Abstract
In late December 2019, Chinese authorities reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China. Wenzhou, as a southeast coastal city with the most cases outside Hubei Province, its policy control and epidemic projections have certain references for national and worldwide epidemic prevention and control. The maximum number of illness onset in Wenzhou appeared on January 26 (38 cases). Since January 27, the incidence per day in Wenzhou has continued to decline is likely to be due to isolation of people return to Wenzhou, implementation of region quarantine and suspension of public transportation system. Under the current control efforts, we estimate that the daily incidence by March 3-9, 2020 will drop to 0 in Wenzhou using SEIR model. The total number of affected people is 538.
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