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《 MedRxiv，2月18日，When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: a SEIR modeling analysis》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-19

  • When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: a SEIR modeling analysis

    lianglu zhang Sr., kangkang wan Jr., jing chen Sr., changming lu Sr., lanlan dong Jr., zhicheng wu Sr.

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023804

    Abstract

    Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37,914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track. In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method. The optimal parameters were estimated as R0=1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47)，TI=14 (interquartile range: 14-14) and TE=3.0 (interquartile range: 2.8-3.1). Based on these parameters, the number of infected individuals in Wuhan city may reach the peak around February 19 at about 45,000 people. Once entering March, the epidemic would gradually decline, and end around the late March. It is worth noting that the above prediction is based on the assumption that the number of susceptible population N = 200,000 will not increase. If the epidemic situation is not properly controlled, the peak of infected number can be further increased and the peak time will be a little postponed. It was expected that the epidemic would subside in early March, and disappear gradually towards the late March.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023804v1
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    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
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  • 《Nature，2月18日，When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-19
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