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《MedRxiv，3月10日，（第2版更新）Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-11

  • Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

    Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Shu Yang, Daihai He, Li Xiao

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312

    Abstract

    The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312v2
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