Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea from 31 January to 1 March 2020
Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Shu Yang, Daihai He
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea has caused 3736 cases and 18 deaths by 1 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95%CI: 2.3-2.9) and 3.2 (95%CI: 2.9-3.5), under the assumption that the exponential growth starting 31 January and 5 February, 2020, respectively. Estimates of dispersion term (k) were larger than 10 significantly, which implies few super-spreading events.
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