Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020
Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Gerardo Chowell
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434
Abstract
Background: Since the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread across China, causing multiple introductions in 109 countries/territories/areas as of March 10th. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Recently more evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which suggest the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease.
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