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《MedRxiv，5月24日，（第3版更新）The Modest Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on COVID-19 Transmission》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-05-25

  • The Modest Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on COVID-19 Transmission

    View ORCID ProfileRan Xu, View ORCID ProfileHazhir Rahmandad, Marichi Gupta, Catherine DiGennaro, View ORCID ProfileNavid Ghaffarzadegan, View ORCID ProfileHeresh Amini, View ORCID ProfileMohammad S. Jalali

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.05.20092627

    Abstract

    Understanding how environmental factors impact COVID-19 transmission informs global containment efforts. We studied the relative risk of COVID-19 due to weather and ambient air pollution. We estimated the daily reproduction number at 3,739 global locations, controlling for the delay between infection and detection, associating those with local weather conditions and ambient air pollution. Controlling for location-specific fixed effects and local policies, we found a negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures above 25oC, a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, SO2, and ozone. We projected the relative risk of COVID-19 transmission due to environmental factors in 1,072 global cities. Our projections suggest warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure may offer a modest reduction in transmission; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will not be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.05.20092627v3
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