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《MedRxiv，3月10日，（第4版更新）The impact of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-11

  • The impact of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

    Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan Grenfell, Oliver Pybus, Christopher Dye

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019844

    Abstract

    Respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in China during December 2019. Attempting to contain infection, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. Here we evaluate the spread and control of the epidemic based on a unique synthesis of data including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown slowed the dispersal of infection to other cities by an estimated 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29), delaying epidemic growth elsewhere in China.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019844v4
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  • 《Science，5月8日，An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-05-09
    • An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China Huaiyu Tian1,*,†, Yonghong Liu1,*, Yidan Li1,*, Chieh-Hsi Wu2,*, Bin Chen3,*, Moritz U. G. Kraemer4,5,6, Bingying Li1, Jun Cai7, Bo Xu7, Qiqi Yang1, Ben Wang1, Peng Yang8, Yujun Cui9, Yimeng Song10, Pai Zheng11, Quanyi Wang8, Ottar N. Bjornstad12,13, Ruifu Yang9,†, Bryan T. Grenfell14,15,†, Oliver G. Pybus4,†, Christopher Dye4,16,† See all authors and affiliations Science 08 May 2020: Vol. 368, Issue 6491, pp. 638-642 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105 Abstract Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
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