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《MedRixv，2月29日，Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-01

  • Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

    Rui Li, Wenliang Lu, Xifei Yang, Peihua Feng, Ozarina Muqimova, Xiaoping Chen, Gang Wei Sr.

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.27.20027169

    Abstract

    Background and Objective: To predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model. Design and Methods: We forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.27.20027169v1
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