How does the outbreak of 2019-nCoV spread in mainland China? A retrospective analysis of the dynamic transmission routes
Xiandeng Jiang, Le Chang, Yanlin Shi
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029645
Abstract
The fourth outbreak of the Coronaviruses, known as the 2019-nCoV, has occurred in Wuhan city of Hubei province in China in December 2019. We propose a time-varying sparse vector autoregressive (VAR) model to retrospectively analyze and visualize the dyamic transmission routes of this outbreak in mainland China over January 31 - February 19, 2020. Our results demonstrate that the influential inter-province routes from Hubei have become unidentifiable since February 4, whereas the self-transmission in each province was accelerating over February 4-15.
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