Mathematical Recommendations to Fight Against COVID-19
13 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2020
Chenlin GU
École Normale Supérieure (ENS)
Wei Jiang
University of Paris-Saclay - Ecole Polytechnique
Tianyuan Zhao
University of Paris-Saclay - Ecole Polytechnique
Ban Zheng
Ecole Polytechnique; HSBC Global Asset Management
Date Written: March 9, 2020
Abstract
The statistics show that the mortality of COVID-19 is 20 times higher than seasonal flu and close to that of Spanish flu, hence it is becoming an absolute priority for every country to take efficient measure to limit the transmission of COVID-19. In this short paper, we propose a mathematical framework to model the contagion of COVID-19 by choosing three key parameters: infection rate, confirmation rate and quarantine efficiency ratio. We use the experience from China to calibrate the parameters, and then study the consequence of different measures. Our research suggest that working in distance and "distanciation sociale" (social distancing in French) is an efficient way to limit the contagion as soon as possible and highlight the risk of having a low confirmation rate which happens frequently when hospital is saturated.
Keywords: COVID-19, epidemic modelling process
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