登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，3月13日，The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-14

  • The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak

    Sang Woo Park, Daniel M Cornforth, Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua S Weitz

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033514

    Abstract

    We assess the impact of asymptomatic transmission on epidemic potential of novel respiratory pathogens (like COVID-19) -- as measured both by the basic reproduction number (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. We show that the impact of asymptomatic transmission depends on generation intervals (i.e., time between when an individual is infected and when that individual infects another person). If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number which do not explicitly account for asymptomatic cases may be systematically biased.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033514v1
13浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《 MedRxiv，2月18日，Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-19
    • Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions Can Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023440 Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has spread to 28 countries/regions with over 43,000 confirmed cases. Much about this outbreak is still unknown, and at this early stage of the epidemic, it is important to investigate different sources of information to understand its dynamics and spread. This study aims to integrate recent infection evidence of international evacuees extracted from Wuhan between Jan. 29 and Feb. 2, 2020 and updated real time domestic traffic data to infer the early dynamics of the COVD-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. A recent concern is the potential presence of asymptomatic transmissions. A modified SEIR model was used to infer the length of the asymptomatic infectious stage to evaluate empirical support for its presence. Based on current evidence, this study found little empirical evidence supporting the presence of asymptomatic transmission. However, it is still too early to rule out its presence conclusively. The updated basic reproductive number was found to be 2.12 on average with and a 95% credible interval of [2.04, 2.18]. It is smaller than previous estimates probably because the new estimate factors in the social and non-pharmaceutical mitigation implemented in Wuhan through the evacuee dataset. Detailed predictions of infected individuals exported both domestically and internationally were produced. The estimated case confirmation rate has been low but has increased steadily to 23.37% on average. Continuing work is needed, especially in monitoring the current infection status of Wuhan residents. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    72浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRxiv，3月13日，Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-14
    • Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Robert Verity, Lucy C Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Natsuko Imai, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Hayley Thompson, Patrick Walker, Han Fu, Amy Dighe, Jamie Griffin, Anne Cori, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma M Cucunuba, Rich Fitzjohn, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van-Elsand, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Xiayoue Xi, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil Ferguson doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357 Abstract Background: A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID 19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. Methods: We used individual-case data from mainland China and cases detected outside mainland China to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the CFR by relating the aggregate distribution of cases by dates of onset to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for the demography of the population, and age and location-based under ascertainment. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    56浏览量
    原文链接