Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions
Can Zhou
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023440
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has spread to 28 countries/regions with over 43,000 confirmed cases. Much about this outbreak is still unknown, and at this early stage of the epidemic, it is important to investigate different sources of information to understand its dynamics and spread. This study aims to integrate recent infection evidence of international evacuees extracted from Wuhan between Jan. 29 and Feb. 2, 2020 and updated real time domestic traffic data to infer the early dynamics of the COVD-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. A recent concern is the potential presence of asymptomatic transmissions. A modified SEIR model was used to infer the length of the asymptomatic infectious stage to evaluate empirical support for its presence. Based on current evidence, this study found little empirical evidence supporting the presence of asymptomatic transmission. However, it is still too early to rule out its presence conclusively. The updated basic reproductive number was found to be 2.12 on average with and a 95% credible interval of [2.04, 2.18]. It is smaller than previous estimates probably because the new estimate factors in the social and non-pharmaceutical mitigation implemented in Wuhan through the evacuee dataset. Detailed predictions of infected individuals exported both domestically and internationally were produced. The estimated case confirmation rate has been low but has increased steadily to 23.37% on average. Continuing work is needed, especially in monitoring the current infection status of Wuhan residents.
*注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
