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《Science，3月3日，Indonesia finally reports two coronavirus cases. Scientists worry it has many more》

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    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-16
    • ‘A ticking time bomb’: Scientists worry about coronavirus spread in Africa By Linda NordlingMar. 15, 2020 , 7:00 PM CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA—Late on Sunday evening, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, in a televised address to the nation, declared that COVID-19, the respiratory disease spreading globally, had become a “national disaster.” The declaration allows his government to access special funding and instigate harsh regulations to combat the viral outbreak. “Never before in the history of our democracy have we been confronted by such a severe situation,” Ramaphosa said before announcing a raft of measures to curb the virus’ spread, including school closures, travel restrictions, and bans on large gatherings.
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  • 《Science，3月3日，Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2021-03-09
    • Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England Nicholas G. Davies1,*, View ORCID ProfileSam Abbott1,†, View ORCID ProfileRosanna C. Barnard1,†, View ORCID ProfileChristopher I. Jarvis1,†, Adam J. Kucharski1,†,... Science  03 Mar 2021: eabg3055 DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055 Abstract A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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