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《Science，3月3日，Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2021-03-09

  • Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
    Nicholas G. Davies1,*, View ORCID ProfileSam Abbott1,†, View ORCID ProfileRosanna C. Barnard1,†, View ORCID ProfileChristopher I. Jarvis1,†, Adam J. Kucharski1,†,...

    Science  03 Mar 2021:
    eabg3055
    DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055

    Abstract
    A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

  • 原文来源：https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055
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    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2021-03-22
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  • 《Nature，3月15日，Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2021-03-22
    • Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 Nicholas G. Davies, Christopher I. Jarvis, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, W. John Edmunds, Nicholas P. Jewell, Karla Diaz-Ordaz & Ruth H. Keogh Nature (2021) Abstract SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than preexisting variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. Here we analyse a dataset linking 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 COVID-19 deaths in England from 1 September 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because of mutations in this lineage preventing PCR amplification of the spike gene target (S gene target failure, SGTF1). Based on 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% CI 39–72%) higher after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, care home residence, local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55–69-year-old male increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% CI 0.8–1.0%) within 28 days after a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate a 61% (42–82%) higher hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than preexisting SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.
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