In March 2001 the UN warned that food shortages might occur within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. It stated that bad weather and conflict could negatively affect the food supply of many SADC states. Now, in 2002, the region is indeed facing the predicted shortages. The impact may be mitigated by international and regional assistance but the underlying factors need to be remedied.
The regional conflicts have mainly political causes and need to be addressed within political fora. Bad weather, though, however unpredictable, is to be expected now and again, and tools exist which can be used for long-term forecasting. The concept of ‘virtual water’ is one such method. It refers to the amount of water required to produce a certain commodity or service. Maize, for example, requires a certain amount of water per tonne. A state can thus calculate roughly how much water it requires to produce the maize its citizens need. The shortfall can be planned for and perhaps avoided. This commentary will assess the current food security (or insecurity) situation in the SADC region. It will also attempt to answer the question of whether a virtual water strategy can mitigate future food shortages.
Conflict aside, floods and drought were named as causes of a future food shortage in the region. For instance, the rains in Mozambique and Malawi were too late to save crops that were badly damaged by drought in January 2001. About 22,000 hectares (ha) of land in Mozambique were ruined. Of course, it was not only bad weather that had an impact. Political and market problems were also responsible. These problems resulted in less maize than usual (the region’s staple food) being planted in 2001.
