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《SSRN，2月4日，Estimating the Number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Chinese Mainland》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-06

  • Estimating the Number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Chinese Mainland

    15 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

    Huwen Wang

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

    Zezhou Wang

    Fudan University - Department of Oncology

    More...

    Abstract

    Background: An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to 2019 novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) happened in Wuhan, Hubei province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, 2 studies estimated the possible epidemic trend of the infection, but proved to be inconsistent with the actual confirmed number of cases. We intend to re-estimate the trend and peak arrival time for the 2019-nCoV infection transmission in Chinese mainland using the SEIR model, so as to provide theoretical basis for future prevention and control of the current epidemic in China.

    Methods: An infectious disease dynamics SEIR model was applied to forecast the epidemic’s development trend in China from 26 January 2020 based on data collected from the database reported by the National Health Commission. R0 were assumed to be 0.5, 0.25 and 0.125.

    Findings: The estimated numbers of cumulative cases would reach the peak on 3rd, 4th and 5th of February, 2020, which were 11,116, 11,373, 11,966, respectively, in Chinese Mainland. Similar peaks were also identified in Hubei Province, Wuhan City and other locations of China outside Hubei Province. The epidemic of 2019 novel Coronavirus was estimated to subside between early May (R0 = 0.125) and early August (R0 = 0.5). The estimated average number of deaths ranged from 344 to 1146.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3529449
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-06
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