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《MedRxiv，3月8日，Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-09

  • Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19

    Corey M Peak, Rebecca Kahn, Yonatan H Grad, Lauren M Childs, Ruoran Li, Marc Lipsitch, Caroline O Buckee

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031088

    Abstract

    Individual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies, particularly for emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To estimate the comparative efficacy of these interventions to control COVID-19, we fit a stochastic branching model, comparing two sets of reported parameters for the dynamics of the disease. Our results suggest that individual quarantine may contain an outbreak of COVID-19 with a short serial interval (4.8 days) only in settings with high intervention performance where at least three-quarters of infected contacts are individually quarantined. However, in settings where this performance is unrealistically high and the outbreak of COVID-19 continues to grow, so too will the burden of the number of contacts traced for active monitoring or quarantine.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031088v1
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    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-05-21
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  • 《MedRxiv，3月16日，Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world》
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-17
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