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《MedRxiv，3月13日，Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-14

  • Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

    Thibaut Jombart, Kevin van Zandvoort, Tim Russell, Christopher Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Sam Abbott, Samuel Clifford, Sebastian Funk, Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl Pearson, Nikos Bosse, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M Eggo, Adam J Kucharski, John Edmunds

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761

    Abstract

    We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761v1
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