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《MedRxiv，3月24日，Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-25

  • Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany

    pierre magal, Glenn Webb

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040154

    Abstract

    We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France, and Germany. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040154v1
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