登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《SSRN，3月19日，Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-21

  • Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

    12 Pages Posted: 19 Mar 2020

    Qasim Bukhari

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

    Yusuf Jameel

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

    Date Written: March 17, 2020

    Abstract

    The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that began 2 months ago in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020. While influenza virus has been shown to be affected by weather, it is unknown if COVID19 is similarly affected. In this work we analyze the effect of local weather on the transmission of the 2019-nCoV virus. Our results indicate that the maximum number of 2019-nCoV transmissions has so far occurred within a certain range of temperature (3 to 13C), and the total number of cases in countries with mean Jan-Feb-March temperature > 18C has been less than 5%. This temperature dependency is also evident within the USA, with outbreak growth rate of southern states (Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona) lower than northern states (Washington, New York, Colorado and Utah). The growth rate of California lies in between northern and southern states. The north-south divide observed in the US further suggests that transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might be less efficient at warmer temperatures and therefore with approaching summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, the spread of 2019-nCoV might decline in the next few months.

  • 原文来源：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998
84浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《SSRN，3月9日，Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-03-10
    • Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations 22 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2020 Carola Binder Haverford College - Department of Economics Date Written: March 8, 2020 Abstract The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 3, 2020, in response to concerns about the coronavirus (COVID-19). On March 5 and 6, I conducted an online survey of over 500 U.S. consumers that asked about their attention to, concerns about, and responses to the coronavirus, their awareness of the Fed's policy move, and their inflation and unemployment expectations. I then provided respondents with information about the Fed's policy announcement, and re-elicited inflation and unemployment expectations. Most consumers were somewhat or very concerned about effects of coronavirus on the U.S. economy, their health, and their personal finances; 28% had cancelled or postponed travel and 40% purchased food or supplies in response to these concerns. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. I show how concerns and awareness of the rate cut depend on consumer characteristics and news sources. Greater concern about coronavirus is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic unemployment expectations. Provision of information about the Fed announcement leads some consumers to become more optimistic about unemployment and revise inflation expectations downward, consistent with recent research showing that many consumers associate bad times with high inflation. Keywords: Coronavirus, Covid-19, Federal Reserve, Inflation expectations, Consumer sentiment JEL Classification: D12, D83, D84, E31, E52, E58 *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    106浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《SSRN，3月5日，Modelling and Prediction of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease Spreading in China Incorporating Human Migration Data》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-06
    • Modelling and Prediction of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease Spreading in China Incorporating Human Migration Data 14 Pages Posted: 5 Mar 2020 Choujun Zhan South China Normal University - School of Computing Chi Tse City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK) - Department of Electrical Engineering More... Abstract This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China are collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Historical data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source are used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure is used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the coming months. Our results show that the number of infections in most cities in China will peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively.
    57浏览量
    原文链接