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《MedRxiv，2月23日，Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-24

  • Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV

    Alessia Lai, Annalisa Bergna, Carla Acciarri, Massimo Galli, Gianguglielmo Zehender

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851

    Abstract

    To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus, 52 2019−nCOV genomes available on 04 February 2020 at GISAID were analysed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent−based exponential growth and a birth−death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 x 10−4 subs/site/year (range 1.1x10−4−15x10−4). The estimated R value was 2.6 (range 2.1−5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851v1
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