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《MedRxiv，2月17日，Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： dingxq
  • 发布时间：2020-02-18

  • Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)

    Deqiang Li, Qinghe Liu, Zhicheng Liu, Zefei Gao, Junkai Zhu, Junyan Yang, Qiao Wang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022913

    Abstract

    Since the outbreaks of the epidemic in Wuhan, China caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19), the cumulative number of confirmed cases are increasing day by day and a large number of population all over the world were at risk. The traffic blockage and quarantine can alleviate the risk of larger epidemic and lower the number of infections, which is essential to adjusting the control polices and instructing the public responses. A Flow-SEIR model was used to estimate the number of infections, based on the confirmed cases data released by the National Health Commission of China and the migration data during the Chinese Spring Festival by the Baidu Migration. We define two factors related to traffic blockage and quarantine to estimate the efficacy of these two intervation measures. In our study, since the government urges the public to stay at home and self-protective, the self-protection at home is also accounted as a part of quarantine. In the results, the quarantine is very effective for epidemic control, which can reduce the number of infections by nearly 90%. And the effect of quarantine is stronger than the traffic blockage control. Early warning of epidemic situation is significantly important to the adjustment of traffic blockage control policy. If there is 1 day in advance for urban blockage, about 3600 people will eventually be reduced in the country. If there is 1 day of delay, about 1800 people will finally be at risk. However, provincial level traffic blockage can only alleviate 21.06% - 22.38% of the peak number of the infections.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022913v1
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  • 《MedRxiv，2月18日，Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)》
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