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《MedRixv，3月3日，A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-04

  • A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland

    Yuan zheming, Chen Yuan

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.29.20029561

    Abstract

    Since COVID-19 emerged in early December, 2019 in Wuhan and swept across China Mainland, a series of large-scale public health interventions, especially Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement, have been taken by the government to control the epidemic. Based on Baidu Migration data and the confirmed cases data, we identified two key factors affecting the later (e.g February 27, 2020) cumulative confirmed cases in non-Wuhan region (y). One is the sum travelers from Wuhan during January 20 to January 26 (x1), which had higher infected probability but lower transmission ability because the human-to-human transmission risk of COVID-19 was confirmed and announced on January 20.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.29.20029561v1
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