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《MedRixv，3月3日，An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-04

  • An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China

    Peter X Song, Lili Wang, Yiwang Zhou, Jie He, Bin Zhu, Fei Wang, Lu Tang, Marisa Eisenberg

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.29.20029421

    Abstract

    We develop a health informatics toolbox that enables public health workers to timely analyze and evaluate the time-course dynamics of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection using the public available data from the China CDC. This toolbox is built upon a hierarchical epidemiological model in which two observed time series of daily proportions of infected and removed cases are emitted from the underlying infection dynamics governed by a Markov SIR infectious disease process.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.29.20029421v1
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