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《MedRxiv，3月6日，The impact of social distancing and epicenter lockdown on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: A data-driven SEIQR model study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • The impact of social distancing and epicenter lockdown on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: A data-driven SEIQR model study

    Yuzhen Zhang, Bin Jiang, Jiamin Yuan, Yanyun Tao

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031187

    Abstract

    The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which originated in Wuhan, China, constitutes a public health emergency of international concern with a very high risk of spread and impact at the global level. We developed data-driven susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-recovered (SEIQR) models to simulate the epidemic with the interventions of social distancing and epicenter lockdown. Population migration data combined with officially reported data were used to estimate model parameters, and then calculated the daily exported infected individuals by estimating the daily infected ratio and daily susceptible population size.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031187v1
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