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《MedRxiv，3月6日，Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model

    Zhou Tang, Xianbin Li, Houqiang Li

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030858

    Abstract

    BACKGROUND The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection in Wuhan City, Hubei Province in December 2019, poses a huge threat to China and even global public health security. Respiratory droplets and contact transmission are the main routes of transmission of new coronaviruses. Compared with SARS and Ebola viruses, new coronavirus infections are infectious during the incubation period. Traditional SEIR (susceptibility-exposure-infection-Removal) There are some differences in conditions for the prediction of the epidemic trend of new coronavirus infection. The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection coincided with the Spring Festival before and after the Chinese Spring Festival.It is necessary to make appropriate optimization and amendments to the traditional model to meet the actual evolution of the epidemic situation.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030858v1
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