Phase adjusted estimation of the number of 2019 novel coronavirus cases in Wuhan, China
Huwen Wang, Zezhou Wang, Yinqiao Dong, Ruijie Chang, Chen Xu, Xiaoyue Yu, Shuxian Zhang, Lhakpa Tsamlag, Meili Shang, Jinyan Huang, Ying Wang, Gang Xu, Tian Shen, Xinxin Zhang, Yong Cai
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024281
Abstract
An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt. In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6 or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258 and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6 and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public heath intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.
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