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《MedRxiv，2月23日，A Note on NCP Diagnosis Number Prediction Model》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-24

  • A Note on NCP Diagnosis Number Prediction Model

    Yi Li, Xianhong Yin, Meng Liang, Xiaoyu Liu, Meng Hao, Yi Wang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262

    Abstract

    In December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number:N_i/N_(i-1) =〖(N_(i-1)/N_(i-2) )〗^α，where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and α was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. Based on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to March.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262v1
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