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《MedRxiv，3月6日，Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province

    Hui Wan, Jing-an Cui, Guo-Jing Yang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029629

    Abstract

    Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of oversea countries. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in mainland China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029629v1
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