《 MedRxiv,3月31日,In search for the hotspots of Disease X: A biogeographic approach to mapping the predictive risk of WHO s Blueprint Priority Diseases》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间:2020-03-31
  • In search for the hotspots of Disease X: A biogeographic approach to mapping the predictive risk of WHO s Blueprint Priority Diseases

    View ORCID ProfileSoushieta Jagadesh, View ORCID ProfileMarine Combe, View ORCID ProfileMathieu Nacher, View ORCID ProfileRodolphe Ellie Gozlan

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20044156

    Abstract

    Anthropization of natural habitats including climate change along with overpopulation and global travel have been contributing to emerging infectious diseases outbreaks. The recent COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, highlights such threats to human health, social stability and global trade and economy. We used species distribution modelling and environmental data from satellite imagery to model Blueprint Priority Diseases occurrences. We constructed classical regression and Support Vector Machine models based on environmental predictor variables such as landscape, tree cover loss, climatic covariates. Models were evaluated and a weighed mean was used to map the predictive risk of disease emergence. We mapped the predictive risk for filovirus, Nipah, Rift Valley Fever and coronavirus diseases. Elevation, tree cover loss and climatic covariates were found to significant factors influencing disease emergence. We also showed the relevance of disease biogeography and in the identification potential hotspots for Disease X in regions in Uganda and China.

    *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20044156v1
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    • 编译者:dingxq
    • 发布时间:2020-02-16
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    • 编译者:zhangmin
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