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《MedRxiv，3月16日，Preliminary evaluation of voluntary event cancellation as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan as of 11 March, 2020》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-17

  • Preliminary evaluation of voluntary event cancellation as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan as of 11 March, 2020

    Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.12.20035220

    Abstract

    Background: To control COVID−19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled in Japan for two weeks from 26 February to 11 March. It has been designated as voluntary event cancellation (VEC). Object: This study predicts the effectiveness of VEC enduring and after its implementation. Method: We applied a simple susceptible−infected−recovery model to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during 14 January to VEC introduction and after VEC introduction to 8 March. We adjusted the reporting delay in the latest few days. Results: Results suggest that the basic reproduction number, R0, before VEC introduced as 2.50 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was [2.43, 2.55] and the effective reproduction number, Rv, after VEC introduced as 1. 88; its 95% CI was [1.68,2.02]. Discussion and Conclusion: Results demonstrated that VEC can reduce COVID−19 infectiousness by 35%, but R0 remains higher than one.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20035220v1
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