Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China
Wuyue Yang, Dongyan Zhang, Liangrong Peng, Changjing Zhuge, Liu Hong
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034595
Abstract
During the study of epidemics, one of the most significant and also challenging problems is to forecast the future trends, on which all follow-up actions of individuals and governments heavily rely. However, to pick out a reliable predictable model/method is far from simple, a rational evaluation of various possible choices is eagerly needed, especially under the severe threat of COVID-19 epidemics which is spreading worldwide right now. In this paper, based on the public COVID-19 data of seven provinces/cities in China reported during the spring of 2020, we make a systematical investigation on the forecast ability of eight widely used empirical functions, four statistical inference methods and five dynamical models widely used in the literature.
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