A simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in China
Feng Zhang, Jinmei Zhang, Menglan Cao, Cang Hui
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.27.20028928
Abstract
The rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), initially reported in the city of Wuhan in China, and quickly transmitted to the entire nation and beyond, has become an international public health emergency. Estimating the final number of infection cases and the turning point (time with the fastest spreading rate) is crucial to assessing and improving the national and international control measures currently being applied. In this paper we develop a simple model based on infectious growth with a time-varying infection rate, and estimate the final number of infections and the turning point using data updated daily from 3 February 2020, when China escalated its initial public health measures, to 10 February.
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