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《MedRxiv，3月13日，The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-14

  • The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

    Zhong Zheng, Ke Wu, Zhixian Yao, Junhua Zheng, Jian Chen

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033670

    Abstract

    Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from Hubei and non-Hubei in China. Methods: We extracted data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the IFP of new cases in Hubei and non-Hubei on subsequent days and the data from Mar 6 to Mar 9 as validation set.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033670v1
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