Evaluating the secondary transmission pattern and epidemic prediction of the COVID-19 in metropolitan areas of China
Na Hong, Jie He, Yingying Ma, Huizhen Jiang, Lin Han, Longxiang Su, Weiguo Zhu, Yun Long
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.06.20032177
Abstract
Understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is crucial for evaluating the spread pattern of it, especially in metropolitan areas of China which may cause secondary outbreaks outside Wuhan, the center of the new coronavirus disease outbreak. We used reported data from Jan 24, 2020, to Feb 23, 2020, fitted the model of infection, and on the number of cases reported to estimate likely number of infections in four high risk metropolitan areas, as well as facilitate understanding the COVID-19's spread pattern. A group of SERI model statistical parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and our modeling integrated the effect of the official quarantine regulation and travel restriction of China.
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