文章标题：Origin of spatial variation in US East Coast sea-level trends during 1900–2017
文章作者：Christopher G. Piecuch, Peter Huybers, Carling C. Hay, Andrew C. Kemp, Christopher M. Little, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Rui M. Ponte & Martin P. Tingley
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0787-6
原文链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0787-6
内容提要：确定相对海平面历史趋势（海面相对于地壳的高度）的原因是预测未来变化的先决条件。在过去的一个世纪中，美国东海岸的变化率存在空间变异性，沿大西洋中部海域的相对海平面上升速度比沿南大西洋海湾和缅因湾海湾地区上升得更快。过去的研究表明，地球对末次冰消期的持续反应、冰和水的表面重新分布以及海洋环流的变化对这种大规模的空间格局有一定的影响。本研究使用概率方法分析了美国东海岸上个世纪的仪器数据和模型重构，表明了地球地壳的垂直运动对1900-2017年美国东海岸相对海平面趋势的区域空间差异起主导作用，这解释了大部分的大规模空间变异。由上次冰消期周围前隆部持续松弛引起的海岸沉降速率在北卡罗来纳州、马里兰州和弗吉尼亚州附近尤为强烈。这种结构表明地球的弹性岩石圈比其他模型所假设的更厚。研究还发现这一时期的相对海平面趋势具有相当大的沿海梯度，且与冰川消融无关，并暗示了二十世纪冰和水的重新分配贡献。研究结果表明，美国东海岸长期相对海平面上升速率中的大规模空间变异主要归因于地质过程，并将以相似的速率持续几个世纪。
论文摘要：Identifying the causes of historical trends in relative sea level—the height of the sea surface relative to Earth’s crust—is a prerequisite for predicting future changes. Rates of change along the eastern coast of the USA (the US East Coast) during the past century were spatially variable, and relative sea level rose faster along the Mid-Atlantic Bight than along the South Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Maine. Past studies suggest that Earth’s ongoing response to the last deglaciation1,2,3,4,5, surface redistribution of ice and water5,6,7,8,9 and changes in ocean circulation9,10,11,12,13 contributed considerably to this large-scale spatial pattern. Here we analyse instrumental data14,15 and proxy reconstructions4,12 using probabilistic methods16,17,18 to show that vertical motions of Earth’s crust exerted the dominant control on regional spatial differences in relative sea-level trends along the US East Coast during 1900–2017, explaining most of the large-scale spatial variance. Rates of coastal subsidence caused by ongoing relaxation of the peripheral forebulge associated with the last deglaciation are strongest near North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia. Such structure indicates that Earth’s elastic lithosphere is thicker than has been assumed in other models19,20,21,22. We also find a substantial coastal gradient in relative sea-level trends over this period that is unrelated to deglaciation and suggests contributions from twentieth-century redistribution of ice and water. Our results indicate that the majority of large-scale spatial variation in long-term rates of relative sea-level rise on the US East Coast is due to geological processes that will persist at similar rates for centuries.
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