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《LANCET，4月7日，Invisible spread of SARS-CoV-2》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-04-08

  • nvisible spread of SARS-CoV-2

    Nian Xiong

    Tao Wang

    Zhicheng Lin

    Published:April 07, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30263-2

    We read with interest Adam Kucharski and colleagues' mathematical modelling study of the early dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).1 We agree that a stochastic transmission model might best fit with the reality around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which was the origin of the COVID-19 outbreak2 and 1 mile away from our hospitals in Wuhan. We appreciate the work making use of different datasets and considering travel. However, we have concerns about the clinical and strategic values of this work.

  • 原文来源：https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30263-2/fulltext
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  • 《LANCET，4月7日，Invisible spread of SARS-CoV-2 – Authors' reply》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-04-08
    • Invisible spread of SARS-CoV-2 – Authors' reply Adam J Kucharski Rosalind M Eggo Published:April 07, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30275-9 We thank Nian Xiong and colleagues for their response to our Article.1 Although we separated individuals into exposed and infectious compartments in the basic model, we also considered a sensitivity analysis whereby people became infectious in the second half of their incubation period, and obtained the same conclusion (Article appendix p 12). We allowed the reproduction number, R, to vary over time in our model, rather than simply fix this value, to capture possible variation in transmission as a result of control measures and behaviour change. However, our median estimate for the reproduction number in mid-January of 2·4 is consistent with other estimates from the same period by use of a fixed R.2 As there is a delay from infection to symptom onset to hospitalisation, our model incorporated a delay to account for the time it takes for changes in transmission to be reflected in the observed data. Our estimate for transmission reduction was similar to that in another study, which focused on case counts in Wuhan and estimated that R had declined to around 1·3 by the last week of January, 2020.3 We disagree that our assumed incubation period was inappropriate; our assumption of a 5·2 day (SD 3·7) value is consistent with later studies that have estimated a similar value.4
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  • 《Nature，4月7日，SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-04-08
    • SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness Wen-Hua Kong, Yao Li, Ming-Wei Peng, De-Guang Kong, Xiao-Bing Yang, Leyi Wang & Man-Qing Liu Nature Microbiology (2020) Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December 2019. We re-analysed 640 throat swabs collected from patients in Wuhan with influenza-like-illness from 6 October 2019 to 21 January 2020 and found that 9 of the 640 throat swabs were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by quantitative PCR, suggesting community transmission of SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan in early January 2020.
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