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《MedRxiv，2月14日，Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID―19 in Wuhan》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-15

  • Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID―19 in Wuhan

    Toshihisa Tomie

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022251

    Abstract

    The present status of COVID―19 is analyzed and the end of the disease is forecasted. The peak of the epidemic is different in three regions, Wuhan, Hubei province except Wuhan, and mainland China except Hubei. In two regions except Wuhan, the peak of the epidemic passed ten days ago. If the trend until February 11 does not change, the disease may end by the end of February. In Wuhan, the epidemic reached a peak but the reported number of newly infected patients fluctuates largely. We need to know the reason for the big fluctuation to forecast the end of the disease.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022251v1
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