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《SSRN，3月3日，The Economic Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases: The Case of Wuhan Coronavirus》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-04

  • The Economic Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases: The Case of Wuhan Coronavirus

    18 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2020

    Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

    University of Malaya (UM) - Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA)

    Donghyun Park

    Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

    Evangelos Koutronas

    West Virginia University - Department of Mathematics

    Alam Khan

    KUST

    Muhammad Tahir

    Comsats Institute of Information Technology

    Date Written: January 29, 2020

    Abstract

    We evaluate the economic impact of the Wuhan coronavirus, a massive infectious and contagious disease, on China’s economic performance. To do so, we develop a new model, namely the Integral Massive Infections and Contagious Diseases Economic Simulator (IMICDE-Simulator) and apply it to the coronavirus outbreak. Our analysis based on the simulator indicates that the final impact will be substantial. The results indicate that the growth of the Chinese economy will decline from 6.2% in 2019 to 4.3% in 2020. Hence, the Chinese economy can lose easily a margin between 1.9% to 2% of its growth. The negative effect is significantly larger than that of SARS, and thus also likely to have larger spill-overs on other economies.

  • 原文来源：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3533771
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