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《MedRxiv，3月20日，PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 IN PORTUGAL USING AN ADAPTED SIR MODEL PREVIOUSLY USED IN SOUTH KOREA FOR THE MERS OUTBREAK》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-23

  • PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 IN PORTUGAL USING AN ADAPTED SIR MODEL PREVIOUSLY USED IN SOUTH KOREA FOR THE MERS OUTBREAK

    Pedro Teles

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038612

    Abstract

    Since original reports in Wuhan, China, the new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. Moreover, as of the 13th of March 2020, the WHO has announced that the European continent is now the main centre of the pandemic. Many European governments have already implemented harsh measures to attempt to contain the spread of the virus. In Portugal, there are, as of the 18th of March 2020, 642 confirmed cases. In this study, I applied an adapted SIR model previously used in South Korea to model the MERS outbrake, which is also caused by a coronavirus, to estimate the evolution of the curve of active cases in the case of the Portuguese situation.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038612v1
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