登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，3月6日，The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

    Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Chia-Hung Yang, Bernardo Gutierrez, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Brennan Klein, David M. Pigott, open COVID-19 data working group, Louis du Plessis, Nuno R Faria, Ruoran Li, William P. Hanage, John S Brownstein, Maylis Layan, Alessandro Vespignani, Huaiyu Tian, Christopher Dye, Simon Cauchemez, Oliver Pybus, Samuel V Scarpino

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708

    Abstract

    The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20026708v1
58浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRxiv，3月12日，The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-13
    • The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China Kiesha Prem, Yang Liu, Tim Russell, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Nicholas Davies, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Mark Jit, Petra Klepac doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033050 Abstract BACKGROUND: In December 2019, a novel strain of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures and efforts in response to the outbreak. METHODS: We quantified the effects of control measures on population contact patterns in Wuhan, China, to assess their effects on the progression of the outbreak. We included the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model fitted to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in the age-structured epidemic framework. Further, we looked at the age-distribution of cases. Lastly, we simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way, and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    167浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRxiv，3月17日，Impact of city and residential unit lockdowns on prevention and control of COVID-19》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-18
    • Impact of city and residential unit lockdowns on prevention and control of COVID-19 Peng Shao doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035253 Abstract With respect to the asymptomatic transmission characteristics of the novel coronavirus that appeared in 2019 (COVID-19), a susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered-death (SAIRD) model that considered human mobility was constructed in this study. The dissemination of COVID-19 was simulated using computational experiments to identify the mechanisms underlying the impact of city and residential lockdowns on controlling the spread of the epidemic. Results: The implementation of measures to lock down cities led to higher mortality rates in these cities, due to reduced mobility. Moreover, implementing city lockdown along with addition of hospital beds led to improved cure and reduced mortality rates. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    166浏览量
    原文链接